In a recent survey, the World Economic Forum has identified a cluster of interconnected risks that could shape India’s economic and strategic environment in 2026, warning that rapid technological change, rising global economic fragmentation and persistent domestic disparities are converging to create a more complex risk landscape.

In its latest global risk assessment, the Forum places geoeconomic confrontation, cyber insecurity and social inequality among the most pressing near-term threats, while cautioning that failures in governing artificial intelligence and digital systems could amplify these pressures over the medium term.

For India, the assessment does not question growth momentum or long-term potential. Instead, it underscores the challenge of managing scale of population, digital adoption and global integration at a time when economic competition and technology are increasingly intertwined with national security and governance.

Geoeconomic confrontation and India’s external exposure

One of the most significant shifts highlighted by the Forum is the rise of geoeconomic confrontation as a dominant global risk in the short term. Unlike traditional security threats, this form of rivalry plays out through trade restrictions, sanctions, export controls, investment screening and competition over critical technologies and resources.

The WEF notes that economic instruments are now routinely deployed to pursue strategic objectives, increasing uncertainty for globally integrated economies.

For India, this environment presents a dual challenge. On one hand, India is seeking deeper integration into global value chains, particularly in manufacturing, digital services and clean technologies. On the other, increased fragmentation of markets and rules raises the risk of supply disruptions, regulatory uncertainty and reduced access to advanced technologies.

The Forum’s warning suggests that economic resilience through diversification of supply chains, strategic stockpiling and policy predictability will be as important as traditional growth drivers in the coming year.

Cyber insecurity emerges as a systemic national risk

Among India-specific concerns, cyber insecurity stands out as a critical vulnerability. The WEF points to a sharp rise in the sophistication and frequency of cyberattacks globally, driven in part by geopolitical tensions and the growing use of artificial intelligence by malicious actors.

For large digital economies such as India, the scale of exposure is amplified by widespread digitisation of financial services, public infrastructure and government platforms.

The Forum highlights a growing “cyber capacity gap” between organisations and regions that can invest heavily in security and those that cannot. In India’s case, uneven cyber preparedness across states, sectors and institutions increases the risk that localised breaches could have national-level consequences.

The report implicitly calls for stronger coordination between government and the private sector, greater investment in cyber skills, and clearer accountability frameworks for protecting critical digital infrastructure.

Inequality, public services and social resilience

Beyond technology, the WEF assessment draws attention to income inequality and strains on public services as underlying risks that could magnify the impact of external shocks.

While India has made progress in poverty reduction and service delivery, disparities across regions and income groups remain pronounced. The Forum’s analysis suggests that such gaps can weaken social cohesion and reduce the state’s ability to respond effectively to crises — whether economic, environmental or technological.

In this context, the risks identified are not isolated. Economic disruption caused by global fragmentation or cyber incidents can exacerbate inequality, while inadequate public services can slow recovery and heighten political and social tensions.

The WEF’s framing positions inclusive growth and institutional capacity as essential components of national resilience, rather than purely social objectives.

Artificial intelligence: opportunity with governance risks

Looking beyond immediate threats, the Forum places artificial intelligence governance among the most consequential medium-term challenges.

AI is expected to play an expanding role in productivity, public administration and defence, but the WEF warns that weak oversight could lead to job displacement, misuse in surveillance or security contexts, and heightened cyber vulnerabilities.

For India, which is rapidly adopting AI across sectors, the challenge lies in balancing innovation with safeguards.

The Forum emphasises the need for adaptive regulatory frameworks, transparency standards for high-risk AI systems and international cooperation to prevent regulatory fragmentation. Without such measures, AI could act as a force multiplier for existing risks rather than a stabilising influence on growth.

Outlook

Taken together, the WEF’s assessment does not predict crisis, but it does argue for a shift in emphasis from maximising short-term growth to building long-term resilience.

For India, this implies strengthening cyber defences, preparing for a more fragmented global economy, addressing structural inequality and investing in governance frameworks that keep pace with technological change.

The Forum’s message is clear: in an era where economic competition, technology and security are increasingly inseparable, national success will depend not only on growth rates, but on the capacity to absorb shocks, adapt quickly and maintain social cohesion.

How India responds to these warnings in 2026 will shape not just economic outcomes, but its strategic standing in a more contested global order.